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Growing apprehensions are present regarding the possibility of military engagement between East African countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which numerous people lost their lives.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Despite persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been confined to short statements on X from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a policy of retaking lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that attempts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Region

There have been few indications of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has shown graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The director of human resources department of the military, General Hachalu, stated recently in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Historical Origins of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict occurred, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, causing hostilities in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two agreed to a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a move that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

But relations have subsequently deteriorated again.